(2018年6月28日修改)

(English translation follows)

美国人不太喜欢强权政府。在短短的二三百年中，许多被关押的或曾被关押的，总之失去过自由的犯人逃到美洲，一起参加建立美国，使人们更喜欢个人的自由。但在特朗普大规模减税之前，美国以全球及高额征税的政策，却实质形成了一个强权的政府。以它强盛的军事力量和令国内百姓生畏的情报系统实质实行着高度集中的管理。制约只有限的在统治阶层中，自由只在被预先框定的范围内，强压却始终对准民众和国外。我们看到美国当选总统基本上是得募捐或财务资金最多的人，这说明候选人对这些资金的依存度，但因以私人或利益集团（机构）名义进行大规模提供资金的人只能是富豪或利益集团（比如全国枪械协会），因此成功的候选人只能是这些富豪和利益集团的代言人。连一半黑人的奥巴马也不例外，一般的百姓只能在富豪选好的候选人中选择。其举足轻重的电影文化和媒体小心翼翼影响着人们的价值观。世界上恐怕只有美国是允许私人持枪，而枪击杀人的案件也是世界第一，这种简单的关联，都不能使美国戒枪，可见利益集团通过其所支持的当选总统对政府政策巨大而暗中的影响。看来美国需要另一个林肯，举行全国公投，像禁奴一样戒枪。总之美国国内外没有人会怀疑美国政府是强权的政府。

 

特朗普是商人，商人本性一是好赌，一是贪利。所谓好赌，就是不顾客观巨大的风险，敢于铤而走险。他上任没有多久，带着商人历来对政府税收的偏见，不是稳步推进减税方案，而是进行大规模减税的豪赌，赌减少政府收入与让利私企所带来的经济动力。减税后，政府可支配的收入顿时减少一大部分，可军费仍不能减，还需扩充海军，改善核武，使其大大超过国防的需要。这反映了现代帝国主义的唯一特征军事输出与武力干预他国。这必然使政府在经济上的作用持续减低。没人限制美国政府在经济上发挥作用，是美国自己的选择，所以不要抱怨他人，也不要想把自己的选择强加于人。人类与贫困做斗争绝不是儿戏，是人类尽自己最大的努力艰苦卓绝的奋斗，这自然包括人类可使用一切有效的方式，其中主要是包括有组织的集体配合—即政府的努力，也包括个人-私人卓越的努力。美国减税扩军使政府的各项支出立即捉襟见肘。因为增加借债额度将非常困难得到国会的批准；别国分担的军费近期内远不及按特朗普的扩军计划所需每年达250亿美元的要求。这使美国政府促进发展经济的职责无法履行，市政工程陈旧，基础建设缺乏经费，可这一减税所期盼的私人神奇推动经济发展力量的到来却遥遥无期。这使特朗普不得不咬牙宣布在贸易上，向各国开战，希望美国政府能从关税上找回来一些。提高关税虽然可限制能别人的出口，但出口国不得不提高出口价格，受害的也必然包括美国人民。 这是以牺牲国内百姓的利益为代价，而采取的非市场行为。不像特朗普等富豪，普通百姓对此提价异常敏感且对他们是不公平，但这是美国政府将这提高的物价从百姓饭碗里夺走。特朗普不惜得罪中国，甚至得罪大批盟国来提高关税，希望贸易上能有良好的表现，以提高其GDP。他国内减税，对外加税，不惜改变现存的世界秩序，和全球进行着一场巨大的赌博。

 

特朗普赌中国不敢打贸易战。中国从大局出发，从两国经济皆受损，世界经济受损的客观冷静的立场出发，说不希望两国之间打贸易战。但这不宜多讲，心里明白就可以了，否则易授人以短。况且这在特朗普的解读中可不是这样，其解读这是中国恐惧的表示。另外特朗普自认为手中有对中国出口的高科技产品，中国不能轻易找到替代来源，而中国出口美国是低端产品容易找到替代来源，所以中国不敢打贸易战，而且中国越是多讲客观情况，特朗普越是认为这是中国的恐惧。这正象68年前，美国自认为手里有先进的武器，中国只有落后的武器，所以中国不敢出兵朝鲜，出了也不能打赢。但没想到毛主席不信那邪，清醒分析美国虽然有先进武器，但其前线和后勤距离遥远，因此不但出兵朝鲜而且勇敢善战，坚持现代化作战条件下相对长时间，把美国又赶回三八线。

 

贸易战同真实的战争同理，也是两边同时受损。中国虽然部分产品不如美国产品高端，但美国改变从中国进口不可能不受损失。因如果并非如此，美国公司早就会找替代来源; 更不用说美国对中国出口还有许多低端产品。进行贸易战美国是低端消费者首先受损，中国产品更紧密关系到美国民众日常生活，所以他们更加难以长期承担损失。原先的贸易对普通百姓本最公平，不然美国公司也不会进口任何的中国产品。特朗普应从其它方面找贸易赤字的原因；另外，美国公司是私有的，不能经受长期损失。私有公司决不愿为其政府长期承担损失。而中国大部分进口商为国有机构，承担损失的能力远大于美国的私有公司。少进口高端产品虽影响高科技工业，但不会严重影响百姓日常的生活。因此只要长期坚持，必会取胜。不要战略上老是看着自己的弱点，该损失的让它损失。委曲求全，不打贸易战是求不来的，只有勇敢面对，否则对方只会层层加码，没完没了。

 

签任何协议在特朗普看来就如同儿戏，他最终选择了贸易战。什么“国家安全”，“经济安全”，“全球化损害了美国工人的利益”？这些都不过是借口。关键是他坚持损害贸易的做法，又不想改正，同时异想天开想避免赤字。美国有那样强大的军事力量和情报网，还奢谈什么别人威胁到他的安全，岂非笑话；“保护知识产权”也不过是借口，他的技术可在出口国注册技术版权而得到保护，这样既保护了技术版权又发展了出口。买方如对此保护的不够，可以提出改进。但不得把人家发明的同类技术都想象为盗窃技术。技术转让本是市场行为，没有谁在胁迫下转让，企业绝不会做不符合自己利益的买卖，不需要唐吉歌德式的“打抱不平”。要想保护技术版权得做些工作，不要空喊，更不能作为限制出口的理由。特朗普实用歪道解决贸易赤字，解决财政收入的尴尬。高科技产品出口对中国限制是美国贸易赤字的根源，特朗普应该知道因为这点它和其他国家的贸易赤字完全不同。 贸易壁垒是破坏世界自由贸易秩序的祸首，“欲加之罪，何患无词”。中国必须要正面和直接反驳这些歪理借口。含糊其词，不能解决问题，只有这样才能击中特朗普的要害。美国一旦放开高科技出口，不要说一两千亿美元，四五亿美元的产品，中国也从美国有需求，这才是解决美贸易赤字的正道。

 

特朗普连自己的赌盘都没搞好，怎能真心对待俄罗斯。当然搞好美俄的关系，对世界和谐有利，但特朗普真心并不止于此。特朗普如此幼稚，眼看中俄友谊与合作不断加强有点发急，他想为避免可能被超越 “连俄抗中”实现美国在经济上进一步强大的美梦和策略愈发遥不可及。异想天开想重新邀请俄罗斯加入G7会议以实现他的美梦，怎么可能。特朗普“美国优先”的政策不会对俄罗斯有任何实质的帮助，美国也不会从俄罗斯买一滴石油，并股子里从不平等相待俄罗斯。而在另一边中国及上合组织从内心深处非常尊重俄罗斯，平等相待。使俄罗斯失去西边（华沙组织）但得到东边（上合组织）。中俄经济政治与军事上互相配合，会形成无坚不催的力量。俄罗斯也是堂堂的大国，怎能象奴仆一样，被招呼说来就来，说打发走就走呢? 

         

不错，美国是造就了股市的巅峰，这是公司上市融资的饕餮盛宴，可投资者却不过在账面盈利的虚幻中得到暂时的满足，但不能大规模的将这盈利纳入囊中，否则一旦投资者启动大规模的获利回吐，饥不择食抛售股票的浪潮就会发生，于是股市由高峰崩塌将不可避免。美国不顾国内通胀没有明显变坏的情况下多次加息，显然为私利玩世界经济于掌中。但不断多次加息，会使美国股市最后会因无力承受不断加息的重压而崩塌。处于高峰但岌岌可危的股市及不断循环走恶的贸易战，使三十年代大萧条的梦魇可能在特朗普的豪赌中重现。

 

特朗普的中心思想：使美国再次伟大。但伟大不伟大，不是由自己来说，也不是在损人利己的基础上经济拔尖。二次世界大战后美国之所以变的相对伟大，因为他是为防止战争，建立了相对公平的国际秩序，并在此基础上美国经济得到强劲发展。如不能建立和维护相对公平的秩序，美国只顾自己不顾他人的利益，到处称霸欺负别人，只干损人利己的事，即便经济再发达也是不能称之为伟大。如今看到别人在这经济秩序中发展壮大，而要改变这秩序，这只能和伟大背道而驰。

 

也许朝核问题能稍微安慰一下特朗普众叛亲离的烦恼。因其敢冒天下之大不违断然撕毁多国签订的伊核协议的美方部分，就必须在朝核问题上尽力做出特朗普式的良好示范，以告天下。朝鲜本来要的是国家安全，美国要的是无核化，各取所需，可能成功。但贸易战，不管多么使劲，绝不可能成功，因为根本损害别人的利益。他不惜引致世界大乱，破坏世界现存秩序。重新挑起伊核问题，并用心把朝核问题做成样版，又是一场真正的豪赌。特朗普已对周围的一切人和事物失去了敏感，失去了正常的判断，只深陷在自我陶醉中和使美国再次伟大的幻想中。奥巴马的一切，盟国的一切，中国的一切，难民的一切，世界组织的一切，总之地球的一切都是坏的，因此都加以反对。美国现政府不断退出世界各种组织，这不仅无视美国前政府与别国签的协议，而且是对这些组织所维护的国际秩序不满，这不断地退出世界组织是说明美国才真正要改变第二次世界大战以来为维护和平与经济发展所确立的秩序。这些无关对美国是否公平，那不过是个借口。这种自绝于世的态度有点问题，如同赌输的表现，难免会自我毁灭。 但不管世界出现什么乱象，特朗普个人希望得到诺奖的美梦依然炙烈。

  

总之，世界被特朗普的豪赌搅得惶惶不安。在这当中，什么险事都可能发生，都有人可能铤而走险。特朗普在豪赌中不成功，便成仁，可世界却因特朗普的豪赌引发混乱。

 

Trump's Big Gamble 

(revised on 6/28/2018)

 

Americans don't like the powerful government too much. About two or three hundred years ago, a lot of persons who had ever been imprisoned or just were being imprisoned, anyhow, those had ever been losing the freedom fled to the American continent , to join the establishment of the United States of America. Therefore it made Americans more like personal freedom. But before Trump's massive tax cut, the US policy taxing all over the world at high rates actually formed a mighty government. With its powerful military force and the fearful intelligent system to its citizens, actually the US government is carrying out highly centralized administration. The checking systems are limited only within the ruling class, freedom is only within the pre-established scope, and high pressure has been always applied to ordinary people and foreign countries. We see nearly all of the elected US presidents have been those who can get the most of financing. This demonstrates the candidates for presidential election rely on financing in big extent. But because people who are able to give large amount of money in the name of persons or interest groups (organizations) can only be the riches or profitable organizations, therefore successful candidates can only be the speakers of the riches and the those organizations（e.g. NRA）. And even Obama, the half black, is no exception. The ordinary people can only elect among the candidates chosen by the riches. Its important film culture and media have greatly affect people's values. Gun private ownership is allowed perhaps only by USA in the world, and the number of case of shooting and killing by gun is also the first in the world. This simple correlation even cannot make ban of private ownership of guns in USA, therefore we can see these organizations have secretly and significantly influences on US government’s policies through elected presidents they support. It seems that another Lincoln is needed to hold a national referendum and to ban private ownership of guns like ever ban of slaves. In short, no one at home and abroad of USA will suspect that the US government is a powerful one. 

 

Trump is a businessman. Businessmen love gambles and profits by nature. The so-called gambling is to dare to take risks despite they are huge in real world. With his merchants' prejudices on government taxes all long, not by steady tax cuts but by big bet, he did a large-scale of tax cut shortly after he was in office, betting on the big reduction of the government revenues and economic driving force from private sectors when being given more taxes saved.             

    

However, after this tax cut, the disposable revenues of the government will be suddenly reduced by a large proportion, but the military expenses cannot be cut. The navy is needed to expand; its nuclear weapons have to be improved. This reflects the only characteristic of modern imperialism is military output and interventions to the other countries. This cut will inevitably reduce the government's role in promoting the economy. No one try to restrict the US government's role in the economy. It is the US self-choice. So Trump should neither complain about others to use the government’s efforts, nor want to impose his self-choice on others. The struggle of mankind against its poverty is absolutely not like a child play at all. It is the full efforts human beings have made to fight against the poverty in its extremely hard and bitter works. So it naturally includes all effective ways used mainly including well organized collective efforts of human beings - the efforts of the governments, and also includes individual or private outstanding efforts.  U.S. tax cut and the military expansion have made the instant tense of the government's spending，because the increase of borrowing lines for the government is not so easy to get the congress improvement; The additions to share military expenditures by other countries are recently far enough to meet the requirement of USD 25 billion a year according to Trump’ goal. These have made the government's responsibility for promoting the economy can't be fulfilled, the municipal engineering works are old, and the infrastructure is short of funds, but the magic driving force of the private sector is still far away and unseen. These made Trump have to declare wars in foreign trades on all countries with gnashing, hoping that the US government can make something more back from the tariffs and hoping a better performance of its foreign trades, so that its GDP can be raised. This is unmarketable policy at expenses the interests of its ordinary people. Although tariff rises may have some negative influences to the exports of others who have to increase the export prices. But the first victims must be the American people for their interests harmed. Unlike Trump and other rich people, ordinary people are extremely sensitive to the price increase and the trade wars are unfair to them. But it is the US government who took away the price spread from the American people's pockets. Not care about to offend China, even to offend a large number of the allies, he raised the tariffs, hoping its foreign trade has a better performance so that its GDP can rise. By cutting tax internally and raising the tariffs externally and even without care about changing the world existing orders, Trump has played a huge gamble with many countries.

 

Trump is betting on China who dares not to fight in trade wars. However, from the overall situation and from objective and calm point of views i.e. the trade war will damage the economics of the both countries and the world economy, China hopes no trade war. But this expression should not be often said and is enough to bear in mind. Otherwise you will easily expose your weak points to others. Moreover, Trump did not interpret it in this way. His interpretation is as showing a sign of fears of China. In addition, Trump believes US exports to China are including high-tech products which China cannot easily find alternative sources; while China's export to the USA are only low-end products that is easy for Americans to find alternative sources. So China is afraid to fight trade wars. And the more China speaks of his hope, the more does Trump interpret it as showing the fears of China. Just as 68 years ago, the USA thought that it had advanced weapons in hand and China only had backward weapons, so China dared not to send troops to North Korea and if China did, the Chinese troops could not win. But out of American estimation, Chairman Mao did not believe that ill conclusion with cool and calm analysis that though USA had advanced weapons, its logistics was far away from the front line, so China did not only send the troops to the North Korea but also the Chinese troops were brave and good at battles, and drove the US troops back to the 38 line after a relatively long time under the conditions of modern warfare.

 

Trade war is the same as real war and both sides are suffering some damages. Although some of China's exports are not technically as high as American’s, however it is also impossible for American to suffer no losses if changing sources to other countries. If it is not so, American companies had found alternative sources much early, let alone to say USA’s exports to China include a lot of low end products. It is the American low end consumers who first suffer the harms when the trade war begins. China’s products are more closely concerned with the daily life of American ordinary people. So it is more difficult for low end consumers to bear the long-term harms. The original trades is most favorable to the ordinary Americans in fact, otherwise the American companies would not buy anything from China. Trump should find the reasons for its trade deficits from the other angle. In addition, the American companies are privately owned, which cannot withstand losses for a long-term. Private owned companies are extremely unwilling to sustain long term losses for its government. And most of Chinese export companies are state-owned, so the ability to bear losses is far greater than the US private owned companies. And although high-tech products have the negative impact to high tech industries, they will not seriously affect the daily life of Chinese people, who therefore generally can sustain the losses for a longer time. As long as China insists it for a longer time, they will win. We should not always look at our self-weaknesses strategically. Those should be damaged, let it damage. To stoop to beg the goodness in general won’t do, unwilling of trade war cannot be begged to come. Only be brave to face it can win. Otherwise the counter party will importune one after another without the end.

 

Trump regards any agreements signed with him as a child play. He ultimately chose a trade war. So as his excuses of "national security", "economic security"，“globalization damaged the interests of American workers”， they are all but excuses. The key point is he insists on damaging way for the trades while he does not want to change it but at same time whimsically wants to get rid of trade deficits. Since US has such a strong military force and intelligence network, and he still has talked too much about threats from others, what ridiculers it is! "The protection of intellectual property" is other excuse. The copy rights for his technology can be registered in the export countries, so that both the technology can be protected by copy rights and the exports also can be developed. If the buyers do not provide enough the protections, you may point it out and get it improved. However you should not think all the similar inventions as results of technology steals. The transfer of technology is market behavior. No one transferred it under coercion. Transfer of technology and occupying more market shares are fairly co-existent. The exporters will not do anything against their wills. They do not need the Don Quixote’s fight against the “injustice”. And if you want technological protection, you have to do some things and should neither indulge in the empty shouting, nor see it as the reason for export restrictions. Trump tries to get rid of the trade deficits and the embarrassment of fiscal revenues in the wrong way. Restrictions on high-tech exports to China are at the main reason for America's trade deficit with China. Trump should know it is different with trade deficits with other countries. And the restriction is the cause of undermining the world's free trade orders. Anyhow “if you want to condemn somebody, it is easy to find a word to charge him”. China should confute these excuses straight forward. Vague expression cannot solve the problem. Only clear-cut explication can hit Trump's vital part. Once the United States lifts the ban of high-tech exports, China will demand something like US$400-500 million of products from the United States, let alone $100-200 billion. And that's the right way to get rid of the U.S. trade deficit.

 

Trump even doesn't well stand in his gambling position, how can he treat Russia seriously? Of course, USA-Russia keeps normal relation which is favorable to the world peace. However Trump may not limit it according to his real thinking. Trump is so naive that he is anxious to see that Sino-Russian friendship and cooperation continuously strengthen. His dream and strategy of “uniting Russia and fighting China” for possibly overpassing by China and getting America stronger economically is more and more far away to realize. He whimsically thought to ask Russia to re-join the G7 meeting to realize his dream, how can it work? 

 

Trump's policy "American First" will not help Russia virtually at all, and the US will also not buy a single drop of oil from Russia, and it never treats Russia equally inherently. On the other side, China and SCO respect Russia from the bottom of heart and equally treat each other. Russia lost the West side (Warsaw organization), but gains from the East side (SCO). China and Russia have commonly made economic, political and military coordination closely, so to form a strong force that can conquer any difficulties. Russia is also an imposing big country，how can it be like a slave? When the slave is called, he is immediate to come; when dismissed, he is immediate to leave.

 

Yes, the American stock market has been pushed to the peak. It is a gluttonous feast for the companies’ IPO, but investors can only temporarily be happy to see the illusory profits in their books, but it cannot try to take the profits into their pockets in a large scale. Or once the investors start to take profits in a large-scale, the waves of stock selling will break out in huge scale. “The hungers cannot be choosers”. Then the stock market will collapse from the peak inevitably. The US has repeatedly raised interest rates, despite the domestic inflation has not deteriorated at all. Clearly by raising the interest rate, they have been playing the world economy in their palm to benefit their own. But US stock market will collapse finally at the result of its heavy burden of the continuing hikes of the interest rate. The stock market dangerously at its peak and the circulating deteriorated trade wars will reproduce the nightmare of the great depression in 1930s due to the Trump's big gamble.

 

Trump's main idea is to make the American great again. But whether being great or not is neither judged by his own, nor bad policies of “benefit oneself at expenses of others”. The reason that United States became relatively great after the World War II, because it established a relatively fair international orders to prevent war, and on this basis the American economy has developed strongly. If no relatively fair orders established and maintained, if the US did only harm the interests of others, seek only hegemony and bully others in favor of only his own at expenses of others, it cannot be called great despite how strong its economy would be. Now, only because US government saw other people growing stronger on the basis of this economic orders then he wants to change it, that can only run counter to the greatness.

 

Perhaps the issue of North Korean nuclear can slightly console Trump's annoyance for keeping losing and alienating friends and allied countries. Trump dared to tear up the American part of Iran Nuclear Agreement signed with many countries, he must make the issue of North Korean nuclear as good example, which is made at Trump’s best efforts and to let the world know. North Korea wants national security in essence, the United States wants denuclearization. Each party takes what they really want. So it may be successful. But trade war can never be successful regardless how hard you will make, because it will fundamentally harm the interests of other nation. Despite the trouble he has made and chaos to the existing orders, he re-provoked the Iranian nuclear issue and tried to solve North Korean nuclear issue. It is another real and huge gamble he made. Trump seems to have lost all his sensitivity to people and things around him and lost his normal judgment and is only stuck in self-intoxication and illustration of making America great again. All of Obama built, everything of the allies, everything of China, everything of the refugees, nearly all the world organizations, in short, all of the earth existing things is bad ones, so he is against them. The US current government has withdrawn from the world various organizations, it does not only mean Trump ignores the agreements signed between the former US governments with other countries, but also very dissatisfied with the international orders maintained by these organizations. Such so many withdrawals really mean it is only US who wants to change the orders which maintains world peace and economic development since the World War II. These have nothing to do with whether US being treated equally or not, it is only self-isolation which has some problem in mind. Like the loser in his gambling, it will inevitably end up with self-destruction. But no matter what chaos the world has, Trump's personal dream of winning the Nobel Prize is still burning intensely in his mind.

 

In short, the world was disturbed by Trump's big gamble. In this, anything dangerous can happen, and someone may take big risks. Does Trump really want the success otherwise he likes to wane for the right causes he thought. But the world, however, can cause the disorders owing to Trump's big gamble.