——美国大选的联想

      

美国上层社会倾巢出动支持希拉里竞选总统。希拉里也施展政客的全部法术，但无奈回天无术，离登天只差一歩，仍折戟沉沙。特朗普成功问鼎，要使出商人混身的解数，使美国的大船不继续下沉。但要这样，就需要国际的合作，要双赢。不可借口反对“操纵人民帀”而引发恶斗，因这只是美国前任全球战略的一个说辞。其结果必然是两败俱伤。因为美囯对中国贸易赤字不是由于货币的升值贬值那样简单的原因引起的。 

 

美国大佬们，精英们和美国主流媒体赞美和支持希拉里竞选美国总统，华尔街一片鼓燥 ，富豪们纷纷慷慨解囊，但仍不能避免希拉里当总统的企图失败，其黄粱美梦再次灰飞烟灭。尽管希拉里有许多不诚实的操作，但作为个人，我们不能不为此叹息，“辱宠万悲忻，雅意竟谁了，含恨入荒草”。希拉里没有查觉美国暗中涌动自救的心态，没有看出美国人心态逐渐的但决定性的转变，不满意在世界范围内美国处处指手划脚，处处争强斗狠，却使国内经济不振。正如一位重要的美国民主党员所说：“今天的希拉里的民主党已经成为一个战争党，一个由军火商，雇佣兵，学术战争策划者，干预外国的游说家们，失败的将军们，腐败的政府官员及其自然资源的掠夺者所构成的群体”。自由民主人权那些亮丽的字眼掩盖不住冷酷的血写的事实。华尔街在特朗普有可能当选时暴跌撒泼，以表达不滿。当然取巧于利用机会，造势形成市场变化，不管是升是降，都是难得的金融商机，是发财的机会。

 

为避免金钱干预总统选举，为求平等，应该只准政府支付一切竞选费用并支付相同的竞选费用,不允许任何私人或机构出钱。但，美国允许个人也就主要是富豪们所谓“捐赠”，金钱开道，有势力的大佬选定候选人，这决定了选举民主的虚假和维护私有制的实质。如果连政治选举的私人捐赠都看作是可以接受的“自由表达”，是自由就好，那商业上的贿赂也是自由表达，那就没有什么不可以做的肮脏事了。

 

美国把大量的精力用在军事上，而这军事的优势仅仅作用于小型国家，对象中俄等大型国家仅仅是吓唬，是姿态而已，那就说美国把大量的精力主要用在空虚的威胁 上，打又不能打，像耍猴一样在中俄周边进行军演，自唱自娱，但国内各种问题一大堆，没有力量搞国内建设，债台高筑，贫富分化加剧，民用设施陈旧，枪击案频发，黑人对警察执法日益不满。特郎普已看到这些问题，所以按捺不住要竞选总统以改变这一切。如一位重要的美国民主党员所说：“特朗普愿意抵抗歇斯底里的华盛顿战争鹰派，建制派和主流媒体，敢于说出他不同于民主党狂热的战争倾向的观点和意见”。我们说美国的安全决不是来自不断相互升级的军事竞赛，而只能来自维持世界和平的努力。美国上层社会觉得没有人能与之国力匹敌，没有人能与之比较，梦想当说一不二的世界霸主。奥巴马及美国上层社会不愿放弃并倾全力维持这美梦。希拉里看来会依然持续这没人能超过美国的美梦，这就是美国现在的梦。不知中国在工农业已悄然超越美国，只是金融服务业还差一点，但这已不影响各种建设。

 

特朗普要改变这一切，集中精力，搞好国内，就要甩掉充当世界霸主的心态，要与他国合作，不可无端引发国际间恶斗。人民帀问题即是特朗普可能引发争斗的一个端由。

 

特朗普举起反“操纵人民帀”的旗号，必然要遭到中国的反击，结果就是一场恶斗，还不知谁输，很可能是双输。最终也解决不了问题，因美国对中国的贸易赤字，不是特朗普表面看到而归罪于的“操纵人民币”。美国对中国的赤字决不是由货币的升值贬值引起的，也不能靠货币调整来拉动出口。还是开展国际间的合作会双赢。放开其对中国高科技产品出口的限制，因为继续封锁的意义已很小,美国只买不卖，怎能没有贸易赤字？两个大国之间的贸易决不像与小国贸易那样仅凭调整汇价，蹭一点大国的油就可以改变贸易条件，消除贸易赤字，需要辛勤努力，需要大的经济结构的变革。放开高科技产品的封锁，会使美国在不太长的时间，可能一二年内，消除对中国的大部份贸易赤字，美国也会由于开工足而经济强劲复苏，最重要的是双方合作的关系。这对美国不能说是最后的机会，但机会也不会太多了。中国靠自己的力量迅速发展，慢慢不再需要美国的高科技产品。美国将失去中国市场，最重要将失去使自身经济较快复苏的一次难得机会。

 

Cooperation is Necessary and Best Conditions for Securities and Economic Developments of Every Countries

 

——On American Election 

 

The American upper society went all out in full strength to support Hillary Clinton to run for American President. Hillary also used all spells a politician has, but it was still helpless, being a step away from the heaven. She was defeated and sank like a stone. Trump reached the top successfully, and wanted to exert all businessman skills he has, and let the American big ship not keep sinking. But to realize this, the international cooperation is must, and can get a win-win result. It should not use an excuse of the so-called “manipulation of Renminbi” and caused a fierce battle, because this one is nothing but only an excuse of the former American’s global strategy to fight. The only result would hurt the both sides and not solve the problem, because the trade deficit with China is not simply caused by the currency's appreciation or devaluation. 

 

The American big bosses and the elites, the American media praised and supported Hillary Clinton to run for President of the United States, the Wall Street made noises of their battle drums, the rich took their pockets generously. But these could still not avoid the failure of Hillary. Her sweat dream broke once more like the smoke in the air. Despite many dishonest actions Hillary made in her campaign, but as individuals, we can't help but sigh for it. "Suffered with many shames and humiliations, who care who got the success. With the deep regret, she looks like to get into the grave in weeds at last. Hillary did not realize the American invisible main thinking has turned to self-save, did not see the gradual but decisive shift of mind, dissatisfaction that the American tell others what to do worldwide and fights with anyone everywhere, but being unable to recover the domestic economy with the strength. As an important American Democrats said: "today's Hillary's Democratic Party has become a party of war and a group composed with arms dealers, mercenaries, academic war planners, the lobbying experts for foreign interventions, the losing generals, corrupt government officials and the predators for natural resources ". Those beautiful words such as liberty, democracy and human rights cannot cover up the facts written in cold blood. Wall Street tumbled like mad women when Trump may be elected expressing the dissatisfaction. Taking shortcuts, of course, for the clever use of the opportunity, it promoted the changes in the market, whether it is up or down trend, this change was a rare financial business opportunity, was an opportunity to get rich. 

 

For the sake of avoidance of the money intervention of the presidential election, for the sake of equality, the government should be only one who is allowed to pay all candidate expenses for the campaign and the payment should be same. But, the United States allow so-called "donation" by individuals who are mainly wealth people. Money is as pioneers, and the powerful bosses decide who is the candidate, it demonstrates the democracy in the election is false and the nature of maintenance of the private ownership. If even the private donation in the political election is acceptable as "freedom of expression", it is good to be free anyway, then commercial briberies are freedom of expression, therefore there are no any dirty things that can't be done. 

 

The United States has spent a lot of money to use for the military, and the advantage of the military force can only apply to small countries, for large countries like China and Russia, the only thing that can be done is to threat and to show off. That means the United States has spent a lot of money mainly for the empty threat, and can't really fight. The military exercises surrounding the China and Russia like to play monkey in the street, to sing to entertain one himself, but a lot of domestic problems are unsolved, no strength improves many domestic constructions, and debts are huge, the gap between rich and poor are intensified, the civilian infrastructures are old, frequent gun shootings happened, the discontent in the police enforcement by black people are growing. Trump has seen these problems, so he could not resist running for President to change all of these problems. As the important American democrat said: "Trump are willing to resist hysterical war hawks in Washington, the parties of the organizational system and the mainstream media, dares to say his different views and opinions from enthusiastic tendency of the Democrats towards war ". We say that America's security will by no means come from the escalating military competition of each others, and can only come from the efforts to maintain the world peace. American upper classes feel that no one in the world can rival their powers, no one can compare with them. And they have dreams to become overlord of the world. Obama and American upper class are reluctant to give up and to maintain this dream with all their abilities. Hillary would look like to continue her sweat dream that nobody is able to overtake the USA. It is the American dream nowadays. It has unrealized China has overtaken USA in the industry and agriculture with only the sectors of the finance and services lagged behind, but this does not affect the constructions of all kinds. 

 

Trump wanted to change all of these, concentrate all of American powers, to improve the everything at home. But it will need to abandon the hegemony mind and cooperate with other countries, and should not make international fights groundlessly. The problem of Renminbi is that Trump could think as an execute of fight. 

 

Trump wants to raise the banner of the anti-manipulation of Renminbi, it must be counterattacked by China. The result must be a fierce fight. We don't know who will lose. It looks like to be lose-lose for both sides. Finally the problem still cannot be solved, because US trade deficit with China is not the surface reason that Trump will think and “manipulating Renminbi" that he blamed for. US trade deficit with China is by no means caused by currency appreciation or devaluation, also the American exports to China cannot be boosted purely by currency adjustment. Only international co-operations will result in a win-win situation. The US Government need release the restrictions on the exports of the high-tech products to China, because to continue to blockade these products has a small significance. If the United States only buy things from China and does not sell things to China, how can it not result in trade deficit? Trades between the two big powers never like trades with small countries, i.e. it is impossible to be able to change the terms of trade, to boost its export, to eliminate the trade deficit only by adjusting the exchange rate to take some small advantage from a big country. The big powers need hard works and big changes in the economic structure. If the American release the blockade on exports of high-tech products, it will possibly eliminate the main part of their trade deficit with China for not too long, may be for one or two years. The United States economy will also strongly recover due to the big needs, and the most important thing is that both sides keep cooperation relationship. We cannot say this is the last chance for America, but the chance is quite limited. China rapidly develop on its own, gradually it no longer needs the high-tech products of the United States. The United States will lose the China’s market, for the most important, it will lose a rare opportunity to make its rapid economic recovery.