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中美就要进行战略会谈。谈什么?用基辛格的话,美国就是要谈建立中美之间的“世界秩序”,减少可能的威胁;用中国的话,就是要谈合作,少找麻烦。建立世界秩序也好,谈合作也好,一切军事的经济的政治战略的行动全出自一个或暗藏一个动机。美国建立“世界秩序”,在亚太地区就是要建立新的平衡?平衡什么?

说白了,美国所谓"亚太再平衡"就是要"平衡"中国。它认为中国的快速崛起,做强做大了,这就是美国的影响势力正在缩小,最重要的是市场和资源。所以美国必须制造“麻烦”,“平衡”或控制一下中国的影响。你得多了,我就必然得少了,这不符合美国的利益,因为一切是一个常数。冷战的零和思维强烈地影响着美国。

但这不符合人类发展的总方向,不符合事实。人类后进的国家总要发展,人类总的已经和可能利用的资源和扩大的市场不是固定不能变的常数,再加上人类创新的力量将开阔广大的前途。例如电子网络和电脑技术开阔了崭新的市场和资源,这在几十年前是不可想象的。所以总的来说不会你占得多了,我占的就少了。一些领域,份额上的数字可能会变,但那纯粹是统计上的数字,不是真实的市场和资源,不是绝对值。这两项随着各国经济的发展而变大。过去的历史证明了此点。现在各国可开发的市场和可利用的资源比一百年前,比一千年前不知扩大了多少倍,不值得为此统计上的份额而每年花费千亿的美元建立和保持军事优势和摆出姿态或冒人类毁灭的危险,人们通过联合国可以扬善惩恶。各国的发展和合作总的来说更好。合作则双方受益。要讲建立秩序,首先是合作的秩序,有秩序的合作。

世界在发展,这是必然的趋势。不理解这一点,就永远会怀着阴暗的心理和这趋势抵抗,而不管別的国家经济的发展,而破坏別的文明,阻碍別人的发展,只管毁坏文明不负责建立秩序,这是自私的表现,成为麻烦的制造者,而不是秩序的维护者。要以平静甚至喜悦的心对待别人的发展,以友善的态度帮助别人,专心自己的发展,加强合作。

Figure out the Strategic Motive before the China-US Dialogue

China and the United States will have dialogue. What they talk about? In Mr. Kissinger's words, the United States is to talk how to set up the "world order" between China and the United States, reduces the possible the threats; In China's words, the cooperation is main topic, less to make the troubles. Either for the world order or the co-operations, all the military, economic and political strategic actions are out of the one motivation or hidden with it. The United States’ "world order" is to establish a new balance or re-balance in the Asia-Pacific region. What about re-balance?

Honest speaking, the US so-called "Asia-Pacific rebalance" is to "balance" or to control China. They thought that given China's rapid rise, rapidly developing bigger and more powerful, it means US influences are shrinking, more important they are the markets and resources available. So the United States must make more "troubles" to "balance" about China's rising influences. You have gotten more, it only means I'll get less. It doesn't conform to the interests of the United States. Because everything is a constant.  This zero-sum thinking of the cold war strongly affects the United States.

But it does not conform to the general direction of the development of the human beings, it is not in conformity with the facts. The backward countries always develop to advance ones in Human history, all possible resources that human beings have used and the markets that men have expanded are not the fixed and not constant, plus the men powers of the innovations that will open the bright and broad future. Such as electronic network and computers technologies have opened up totally new markets and resources. It would have been unthinkable a few decades ago. So in general it won't happen that you got more, I will have less. The shares may change in some areas, but that is pure statistical figures, neither the real markets nor real resources available nor the absolute value. Both become bigger with the development of national economy. These items will become big with the developments of all countries. The past history has proved this point. Now the market that all countries can develop and the available resources are much bigger than one hundred years ago and one thousand years ago. It is not worth spending billions of dollars every year to establish and maintain military superiority and posture or to take the risk of human destruction for these statistical shares. People can reward good and punish evils through the United Nations. Countries are developing and these developments and co-operations are better and better year and year in general. If to cooperate, it will benefit every side. To speak to build order, first thing is the order of cooperation, and the orderly cooperation.

The world is developing, it is inevitable trend. Don't understand this, you will be always in the dark psychology and always in the resistance to this trend, and regardless economic developments of other countries, and ruin the other civilizations, hinder the development of other people, always ruin but not responsible to build the orders in the countries ruined, it is totally selfish, become a trouble maker, rather than the protector of the orders. Treat others’ developments with quiet even happy heard, to help others in a friendly attitudes, focus on one’s own development, strengthen cooperation.

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冯毅

冯毅

118篇文章 5秒前更新

作者在美国获得硕士学位,曾在北京中国银行总行资金部工作15 年。在此期间,参与负责管理中国的全部外汇与黄金储备。之后,1989年加入北京中国农村信托投资公司。1992年,到香港加入美国投资银行所罗门美邦公司(SmithBarney)后,在香港美国花旗银行和英国苏格兰皇家银行顾资银行等家外国银行,负责投资理财工作。

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