财新传媒 财新传媒

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 (English translation follows)

 

俄对乌的战争和西方全面愤怒的制裁掀起的一场狂风暴雨,正摧毁着帝国大厦,正打碎着一个世界。这狂风暴雨虽然只袭击着这世界的一部分,但其威力却影响着大部分,尤其这狂风暴雨还酝酿着制裁世界的另一部分,这将根本改变这世界。

 

世界上曾用过贝壳,珍珠,黄金,白银和美元等为货币,为交换的标准衡量各个商品的价值和价钱。这极大地加快和推动了商品交换及世界各国经济的发展。货币的基本功能有衡量一个商品,一项服务,一个抽象艺术品等的价值或价钱,并以等价物参与交换,储存财富等。但最核心的是衡量价值的功能。世界上有一美元,一元人民币,一块卢布等,但这些一元货币究竟价值是多少?虽然有些有历史可查,但绝大多数的人们已不再关心它的由来。布雷顿森林会议上曾确定一美元为1/35盎司的黄金,力求把美元与黄金挂钩,但为后来个别国家的经济发展所被迫脱钩,又企图与石油大致联系,而形成石油美元。但石油价钱的大幅度波动,变得一美元的价值也说不清,不是美元衡量石油,而是石油衡量美元,不过人们还可以用美元来进行买卖石油。但现在这也不行了,俄国不再愿用美元为标准,西方也不愿用卢布买石油。不过石油仍有价钱。我们不去讨论人们喜欢用什么货币买卖石油,我们关心的是用什么标准来衡量石油黄金的价值,什么标准来衡量一切东西的价值。

 

这世界已被分为两个对立的世界,美元已很难再作为世界各国各个东西的大致统一的价值或币值的主要标准。但人类既然一起生活在一个星球上,人类就还需共同前行,人类还需进行商品交换。就还需一个共同的财富价值的衡量标准,世界各个货币也需要一个固定的交换标准,就像我们的时间有一个标准,长度重量容积等等有一个共同的衡量标准。大家都按这个标准来衡量,来比较,就有一个共同的标准来衡量自己的东西,而得出自己的财富的价值或价钱,而不管这一总标准制定的是否绝对的完全的合理,只要相对地有一个共同的比较标准供人类使用。 我们认为以2000年世界总的GDP来衡量各种东西的价值比较合适,以此得出各种东西的相对价钱,就像用一把公用的尺子衡量任何东西而得出它的长度。 我们只使用它的相对的共同的标准进行比较。因为它不是货币,只是一个货币标准,并不参与具体交换和储存财富,只是一个换算和衡量标准,它并不需要任何中央银行的担保,就像衡量长度和时间用米或英尺和小时分钟等一样。这只是一个换算和衡量标准,没有谁担保一样,只要足够权威单位发布和各国共同遵守这标准。在货币交换时,你自己可以定的高,但没人要买,还得降下来,如现在一样。

 

为什么选择2000年世界GDP总量为标准?因它是一个公共中立且固定的人类生产的数字,2000年是新世纪的开端,就像公制的长度重量等一样。世界各物的价值也有一个公共的衡量标准,以利各国之间,各物之间进行价值比较,且不受一国经济政治的影响。各国依旧保持自己的货币,实现货币的其他功能。但衡量价值的功能或标准可以独立出来,采用世界统一的标准。数字货币不能解决以不变的尺度来衡量商品服务等的价值,不能避开一国由于经济政治的变化所引起的价值尺度的变化,所以不是最终解决衡量价值的方案。

 

比如我们可以2000年世界GDP总量为标准。这一总量以联合国统计为准。为了容易记忆,为了开始容易推行,可以以英文字母顺序,分别叫A,B,C,D……。每一级相当上一级的千分之一。

     

以联合国公布这标准共同使用,联合国和世界银行参考现在美元对各个国家货币的价值,共同制定每一个国家货币的开始的等级及数量。比如中国的人民币为4.2F,美元为29.4F,石油价值为每桶2,352F=2.35E等等。各国国内价值价钱不变。比如北京到天津的高铁票价为60元人民币,仍旧是60元,但折合252个F。

 

根据这原则,我们实际大致试算了一下各种的价值,如下:


2000年世界GDP总量是33,830,878,799,862美元(百度)

 

A= 33,830,878,799,862美元(总量)=1A

B= 33,830,878,799,862/1000

  =33,830,878,800

C= 33,830,879

D=33,831

E=34

F=0.034

 

2021年世界GDP总量为961,000.9亿美元(百度),约为2.84A

1美元=1/34E=0.0294E=29.4F

1元人民币=1/7美元=1/7x1/34=1/238E或4.2F 

日元=1/145美元=1/145x1/34E=0.2F

韩元=1/1405美元

        =1/1405x1/34E=1/47,770E=0.02F

等等

 

总之各国货币,各种财富有一个共同的衡量价值的标准进行相对的比较,而绝对总标准的制定并不十分重要。

 

The measure of the values of all the world's currencies and things

 

A storm of Russia's war against Ukraine and the West's sweeping and angry sanctions are destroying the empire state building and shattering a world. Although this storm only hits one part of this world, its power affects most of it, especially if it is also brewing sanctions against another part of the world, which will fundamentally change the world.

 

The world has used shells, pearls, gold, silver and the US dollar as currencies to measure the values and prices of various commodities and the standard of exchange. This has greatly accelerated and promoted commodity exchange and the development of the economies of all countries in the world. The basic functions of money are to measure the value or price of a commodity, a service, an abstract work of art, etc., and to participate in the exchange of equivalents, store wealth, etc. But at the heart of it is the function of measuring value. There are one dollar, one yuan, one ruble, etc. in the world, but what is the value of these one-dollar currencies? Although some have a history to check, the vast majority of people no longer care about its origins. At the Bretton Woods Conference, a dollar was set at 1/35 ounce of gold, and the dollar was tried to be pegged to gold, but it was forced to decouple by the economic development of individual country later, and it was also attempted to roughly link with oil to form a petrodollar. But the price of oil fluctuates so much that the value of a dollar is unclear, not the dollar measures oil, but oil measures the dollar, people could also use the dollar to buy and sell oil. However, this has been no longer possible. Russia is no longer willing to use the dollar as a standard, and the West is not willing to buy oil in the ruble. But oil still has a value. Instead of discussing what currency people like to buy and sell oil, we care about what criteria to measure the value of oil and gold, what criteria to measure the value of everything. 

 

The world has been divided into two opposing worlds, and the dollar can be hard as the main criterion for the rough uniform value or currency value of everything in the whole world. But since human beings live together on a same planet, human beings still need to move forward together, and human beings still need to exchange goods. There is also a common measure of the value of wealth, and the world's currencies also need a fixed standard of exchange, just as we have a standard of time, a common standard of length, weight and volume, and so on. Everyone measures and compares according to this criterion, and there is a common standard for measuring his own things, and to derive the value or price of his wealth, regardless of whether this general standard is absolutely and completely reasonable, as long as there is a relatively common standard of comparison for human use. We think it is more appropriate to measure the value of everything in terms of the total world GDP in 2000, so as to derive the relative price of each thing, just as it is to measure the length of anything with a common ruler. We only use its relative common standards to compare. Because it is not money, just a monetary standard, and it does not participate in the specific exchange of equivalents and storage of wealth, but only a conversion and measurement standard, it does not require any central bank guarantee, just as the length and time are measured in meters or feet and hours and minutes, etc. This is just a conversion and measurement standard, and no one guarantees the same, as long as enough authority units issue and countries jointly adhere to this standard. In the currency exchange, you can set your things any high yourself, but no one wants to buy it, and you have to lower down it, as it is now. 

 

Why was the total world GDP in 2000 chosen as the standard? Because it is a publicly neutral and fixed number of human production, 2000 is the beginning of a new century, just like the length and weight of the metric system. There is also a common measure of the value of all things in the world to facilitate comparison between countries and things, and it will be never affected by the economic and political changes in a single country. Countries still maintain their own currencies which will fulfill other functions of currencies. But the function or standard for measuring value can be independent and adopt a globally uniform standard. Digital currency cannot solve the problem of measuring the value of goods and services on an immutable scale, and cannot avoid the change in the value scale caused by economic and political changes in a country, so it is not a final solution to the measurement of value. 

 

For example, we can use the total world GDP in 2000 as the standard. This total is based on United Nations statistics. For easy memory, for easy implementation at the beginning, it can be called A, B, C, D,,,,,,,, in English alphabetical order. Each level is equivalent to one thousandth of the previous level.       

 

Using the standard published by the United Nations, the United Nations and the World Bank jointly determine the starting level and quantity of each national currency, taking into account the current value of the dollar against each national currency. For example, China's Renminbi is 4.2F, the US dollar is 29.4F, and the value of oil is 2,352F = 2.35E per barrel. The price of domestic value unchanged. For example, the fare of the high-speed rail from Beijing to Tianjin is RMB 60 yuan, which is still 60 yuan, but it is equivalent to 252 Fs. 

 

According to this principle, we practically and roughly calculated the various values, as follows:

 

The total world GDP in 2000 was 33,830,878,799,862 US dollars (Baidu)

 

A = 33,830,878,799,862 US dollars (total) = 1A

B = 33,830,878,799,862/1000 = 33,830,878,800

C = 33,830,879

D=33,831

E=34

F=0.034 

………….

 

The total world GDP in 2021 is US dollars 96,100.09 billion (Baidu), about 2.84A

US dollar1 = 1/34E = 0.0294E = 29.4F

RMB Yuan 1= 1/7 US dollars = 1/7x/34 = 1/238E or 4.2F

JPY 1= 1/145 US dollars = 1/145x1/34E = 0.2F

South Korean won 1= 1/1405 US dollars = 1/1405 x 1/34E = 1/47, 770E = 0.02F

Etc.

 

In short, national currencies and various wealth have a common standard to measure the values for relative comparison, and the formulation of absolute general standards is not very important.

 

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冯毅

冯毅

115篇文章 120天前更新

作者在美国获得硕士学位,曾在北京中国银行总行资金部工作15 年。在此期间,参与负责管理中国的全部外汇与黄金储备。之后,1989年加入北京中国农村信托投资公司。1992年,到香港加入美国投资银行所罗门美邦公司(SmithBarney)后,在香港美国花旗银行和英国苏格兰皇家银行顾资银行等家外国银行,负责投资理财工作。

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